[.ca] Turning Numbers into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of ... (ISBN 0970601905)

Zen and the Art of Statistical Analysis:
In his role as leader of the End-Use Forecasting Group in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Jonathan Koomey is professionally concerned with using numbers from many different sources to gain knowledge about where markets for energy-efficient technologies may be headed. It's an approach called quantitative problem solving. "Although the technical aspects of this process are taught at many universities, the art of problem solving is rarely discussed and even more rarely written down," Koomey notes in the preface. His goal is to amend that lack, helping the reader "to become a first-rate analyst in your chosen field." "Your chosen field" covers a lot of ground, and while the book delivers on Koomey's promise, much of the pleasure of reading it comes from his eccentric definition of both his topic and his audience. Not a textbook -- or not just a textbook -- "Turning Numbers into Knowledge" is aimed at students and professors alike; at problem solvers in business, government, and research; at middle managers and potential investors; and even at journalists. Beginning with a chapter titled "Beginner's Mind" and including others titled "Question Authority" and "Reflect," one might think Koomey's book could have been named "Zen and the Art of Statistical Analysis." But it's also full of technical advice, in chapters like "Let Tables and Graphs Do the Work," "Use the Internet," and many more. In fact Koomey has organized his topics thoughtfully, beginning with considerations of why anyone, professional or amateur, would undertake quantitative analysis. Koomey's bottom-line answer is that it helps us manage a runaway information explosion, which otherwise can lead to paralysis through overload or the opposite, a refusal to learn anything new. He then moves on to the mental preparation needed for problem solving, consideration of common pitfalls, critical thinking, and finally to nitty-gritty techniques. In the first chapter, "Beginner's Mind," Koomey reminds the reader that "experience is a two-edged sword. It eliminates unnecessary detail," but it can also "lead you astray when a new problem is sufficiently outside your experience." What's needed, he says, is a combination of curiosity -- the nonjudgmental observation of the beginner -- with the experience of a senior analyst. He makes his point with Bruce Lee's amusing parable of the Zen master and the Western university professor who came to inquire about Zen but never stopped talking about what he already knew. During a pause in the monologue, the master suggested tea. He poured his visitor's cup full and kept on pouring and pouring until finally the professor protested: "No more will go in!" Noting that professor's mind was like his tea cup, the master asked "How can I show you Zen unless you empty your cup?" Later, in the chapter "Question Authority," Koomey allows that sometimes following authority is essential -- in military maneuvers, for example -- but that most life situations aren't like that. Appeals to anonymous authority are immediately suspect; so are expert pronouncements by experts in an unrelated field, or those with a vested interest in the outcome. Koomey cites the "expert" testimony of researchers funded by tobacco companies who found no evidence that smoking had adverse health effects. He warns that while information on the internet is particularly susceptible to a lack of institutional validity, "any source can propagate nonsense." In an exercise from a subsequent chapter, "How guesses become facts," Koomey suggests that the reader "Find an official statistic that sounds plausible and explore its origins. Do you still find it plausible after you've investigated?" It's an exercise Koomey himself has undertaken more than once, notably with the 1998 claim that the internet was consuming eight percent of total U.S. electricity production and was well on its way to consuming half. Koomey discovered that the numbers were based on bad measurements, bad assumptions, and outright guesses -- none of which prevented them from becoming enshrined as fact before Koomey's team did their best to set things straight. In summing up, Koomey lists a dozen lessons to remember, among them "Don't be intimidated," "Get organized," "Document, document, document," and "Remember that others don't care as much about your work as you do" -- an invitation to know and persuade one's audience. It's sound advice, cheerfully and colorfully delivered by a man who knows what he's talking about, and of value to all sorts of readers -- whether or not they intend to ever crunch a single number.

Great treatise on critical thinking and organization:
"Turning Numbers Into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving" should be required reading for anyone engaged in producing, reading, or analysing information. Based on the title one might assume that I mean numerical information, but that is not the case at all. The basic principles, such as how to sift through information and the importance of documentation of sources, are important parts of any information product. In fact, except for the sections on graphs, tables, normalizing data and a few others, the rest of the book (fully at least three quarters of it) is dedicated to determining what constitutes good information, good techniques, good analysis, good documentation, etc. This is a book on problem solving techniques and analysis of the information products of others. Filled with useful tools and tips for problem solving under real-life situations it is one of the most useful books available. "Turning Numbers Into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving" is a masterful work in the area of critical analysis and a highly recommended read for anyone involved in creating or using information of any kind.

Among the most influential books I've read:
I was expecting a book about quantitative methods and advanced problem solving techniques. What I got, instead, was a book that didn't even discuss numbers until page 111 of a 221 page book, and it was lite on problem solving techniques. Although it was not what I expected it turned out to be one of those rare books that deeply influences and provides fresh perspectives. The book led me on a journey that broke the process of critical thinking into manageable steps. Among the things I learned were: * Examine key factors, such as information, attention and action within the context of a cycle of actions that begins with goals, and moves through execution, how events in the external world influence the meeting of those goals, an evaluation and refinement of goals. Then the process starts anew. * Structured methods for getting organized. The techniques given are simple, yet powerful.How to collect and critically analyze data and information, common fallacies and how to spot them. Two of my favorite parts that reinforce these are then single-page chart titled "What Scientists Say, and What They Mean", and Chapter 20 (Uncertainty Principle and the Mass Media). * The straightforward process of numerical analysis, using relatively simple math techniques to make sense of numbers and turn them into knowledge, is priceless. What makes this part of the book valuable is that the author integrates the preceding chapters that lead you to a critical thinking mindset with common sense and techniques that are within the grasp of high school students. It looks easy, but is testimony to the author's exceptional ability to communicate and inspire. Overall this book is one of my personal favorites and one that I recommend to colleagues. Another book that complements this one nicely is Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity by Jamshid Gharajedaghi.

not for the technically minded:
This is an entertaining and well written book on some of the do's and don'ts of data analysis. To quote from Dr. Beers review below, "The main emphasis is on the art of data interpretation." Indeed there are useful tools here for performing sanity checks and for asking critical questions about all sorts of data collections. ... The examples are, at best, sketchy and few in number. The anectodes are amusing but not terribly informative. I would have much preferred more concrete examples and further discussion on some technical matters. ....

TNIK: For scientists & non-scientists alike:
I began to enjoy the book almost from the very beginning, the writing style is easy to follow, and its explanations are straight to the point. Non-scientists & scientists alike will find useful: 1) the methods and ideas for analyzing and testing for plausibility the everyday information encountered in the media, pointers to finding logical flaws in arguments, and common tricks used by presenters in order to be ambiguous or downright deceptive. 2) simple methods of keeping facts at your fingertips 3) the chapters on life improvement and work-efficiency which made this book pay for itself in a matter of days. 4) helpful links to the Internet and to other books. Scientists and Engineers in particular will find useful · The back-of-the-envelope numerical methods. Many sci/engs do not use them enough. · The description of the scientific process, of which they are (often unconsciously) a part. · Suggestions on efficient, non-sloppy data analysis. The examples on data analysis are somewhat geared to the field of Energy Analysis, but easy to understand and generalize; in the process I learnt something about that field. · suggestions for clear, concise presentation of text and figures during presentation of results. This is also a good book to lend to a student intern or new employee to teach them back of the envelope statistical methods, how to get organized, and good habits, both organizational and data-analysis wise.