[.ca] Inevitable Surprises (ISBN 1592400272)

yes it is.:
Methane is a fuel! (contrary to the ignorant criticism of the previous reviewer)... commonly known as natural gas. It is the cleanest of all mineral fuels for several reasons. The ratio of hydrogen to carbon is higher in methane than any other mineral fuel - so that exhaust gas contains more water than carbon dioxide than any other. Also, it contains nearly no sulpher; indeed, natural gas is the most pure fuel extracted from the ground. And the book is definately worth the read.

Political biases get in the way:
Interesting speculation of potential future events. Some are way out such as the prediction of a major asteroid hit. Others are likely, such as his note that nuclear energy will likely return in response to global warming fears. What spoiled it for me was his calling the US a "rogue superpower". He clearly understands we were attacked on 9/11 and notes that Al Qaeda is a "rogue enemy", but does not believe we have the right to protect ourselves by taking the war overseas to our enemy. His first book, "Art of the Long View" was more informative.

Mindstretcher:
Heartily enjoyed this book. Got me thinking long-term about some of the possibilities for the future that you don't find in the newspapers e.g. the impact of AIDS in places like Russia and India and how that could affect future growth. The way the author can say pretty well what will happen based on current evidence is an amazing tool that should only grow in importance, yet it does not take away the free will to change. Makes you appreciate the world will be even more amazing in the future.

Inevitable Surprises:
Good current trend analysis. Personal political bias reflected. Technical errors: Thinks methane is a fuel - it is not, Thinks is clean - actually causes more pollution to make than gasoline causes when burned. No conclusions on trends, only vague thoughts and recommends positive thinking.

Alternatives to denial & defensiveness before massive change:
Since the future isn't what it used to be and only seems to get stranger by the day, Peter Schwartz's latest book should be a welcome guide to the "inevitable surprises" ahead. Schwartz isn't just any futurist; he's a kingpin at the Global Business Network and frequently consults to governments and large corporations. Schwartz argues that many of the big surprises ahead can be foreseen if we use scenario thinking to closely examining existing signs. With this point as well as in some details - such as the impact of shrinking populations - Schwartz is in accord with Peter Drucker. This book lays out the dramatic transformation and volatility we face over the next quarter century. The book's scope is wide enough that everyone is likely to find themselves startled and stimulated. In case you read Schwartz's previous work and wonder whether he still believes in "The Long Boom", the answer is an undeniable and unashamed *yes!* Productivity and accelerating technological advances will return the economy to a long-term path of strong growth. This doesn't mean that Schwartz paints a pastel portrait of the future. We can expect a cleaner environment and opportunities in abundance, but must also anticipate massive migrations of people, declining populations in large parts of the Western world, a confusing and unruly international situation, global climate crises, plagues, and possibly an asteroid strike. Study this book, challenge Schwartz's thinking, and prepare yourself and your business for a wild ride ahead. Schwartz believes that his forecasts and scenarios will stand up to the test of future history better than those of most prognosticators. The reason is that, in the grand tradition of "predetermined elements" in scenario planning, he is drawing out the implications of events that have already happened. Many of the big surprises are, in fact, inevitable. So why are we continually caught off guard? Schwartz pins the blame on our tendency as decision makers to react to the drivers of change either with denial or defensiveness. Neither kind of response is effective and both are "fundamentally irresponsible" as Schwartz puts it. In this book, he aims to help us understand the kinds of inevitable surprises lying ahead, and to suggest steps that organizations can take to thrive. In the author's view, humanity faces greater challenges now than ever before. At the same time we have greater capabilities than ever before. Our greatest challenge is "to master our own accelerating power, without being swept away by it." Along with a few other well-grounded futurists, Schwartz has laid down a challenge along with weapons for tackling the future. Inevitably, most readers will read this book and find it both informative and engaging but few will incorporate the resulting ideas for action into their plans. When it comes to these large-scale shifts, *doing* has always been disadvantaged compared to *denial* and *defensiveness*. Being proven wrong about this would be a surprise but, alas, not an inevitable surprise.