There are many better books on probability:
A short book describing in non-technical terms some standard topics in mathematical probability -- e.g. gambler's ruin, coincidences, birthday problem, secretary problem. The writing style is reasonably clear and accurate. But this type of material has been covered in many other books with more breadth and flair, not to mention value for money. Read instead Rosenthal Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities.
Probabilities pulled out of nowhere:
This book started out somewhat interesting with high-level discussion of the basics of probability. A nice refresher course of things I imagine most people reading this book already know. Things started to heat up with a neat and surprising example of how many people in one room it takes to have a high probability of two people having the same birthday (26 - can you believe it?!). The explanation and back-up statistics were detailed and easy-to-understand. Then, when it started to get into more interesting topics such as love and the stock market, there was much less statistical back-up. In most cases the explanation was along the lines as follows: "Important people doing complicated research have said you should date 45 people before you find your soulmate." While that is an interesting factoid, I purchased a book on chance to see the statistics and math behind the numbers, not just for cocktail reception fodder. The book felt organizationally incoherent and quickly jumped from topic to topic with little introduction leading into or conclusion smoothly summarizing individual "lessons".
Mediocrity:
Chance is unfortunately so shallow in its examination of the subject that it glances over its various topics. That would be OK if it was giving interesting anecdotes for the layman but it fails at both angles.
Ignorance in understanding Chance - a costly error for humanity...:
Every day, in every walk of life we have to deal with chance. One of the biggest mistakes we humans make is assigning a cause to what really happened by chance. This puts us in a vortex of ignorance, that is hard to come out of. Read this book - it will open your eyes to what all can happen due to chance. You will discover several blind spots along the way - especially with regard to trusting the outcomes of certain tests - such as one for cancer or aids. Great primer on Probability, written in an easy to understand style. It left me yearning for more, that is the only reason I gave it 4 stars.
Fun light reading on probability:
Amir Aczel's "Chance" is a delightful discovery. Light reading, but an accurate and fun exposition of probability in everyday life. I was skeptical at first, because this is such a compressed volume, but Aczel pulls it off and covers the high points of probability well with an engaging narrative style. My favorite chapters were on Pascal's triangle and de Finetti games, but there is enough fun here to have most tastes satisfied. The intended audience is for the science and math curious, and with no more than high school algebra, but pretty much anyone can follow along on this one. Formulas are lean and clear.
| Author: | Amir D. Aczel | | Binding: | Paperback | | Dewey Decimal Number: | 519 | | EAN: | 9781560257943 | | Format: | Illustrated | | ISBN: | 1560257946 | | Number Of Pages: | 176 | | Publication Date: | 2005-12-20 |
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